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Traditional Advertising is Dead, Now What?
Bob Dylan sang, "For the times, they are a-changin'" and that is certainly the case for traditional media, where television, newspapers and magazines are all being traumatized by new medium (the Web).
Even though the population has grown 23% in the last two decades, newspaper circulation is down 20%. Classified advertising, a cash cow for newspapers, has lost business to Craigslist took in $7 billion in revenue. The New York Times is selling 75% of its corporate headquarters and has borrowed money from Carlos Slim at high interest rates in order to stay alive. eMarketer predicts newspaper revenues will drop 16% in 2009, after a 16.4% drop in 2008.
The story isn't any better for magazines. Gross ad pages in magazines have dropped 22% in 2009 and recently PC Magazine, Country Home, CosmoGirl and O at Home, have all folded. U.S. News and World Report has went from a weekly to a bi-weekly to a monthly and TV Guide which at one time had 17 million readers was sold for $1, less than its $2 newsstand price.
Bernstein Research predicts a 20% to 30% drop in TV station ad revenue in 2009. Television is been impacted on three different fronts that has the industry reeling. First, the recession has caused companies to reduce their spending, especially advertising. Second, the Digital Video Recorder (DVR) has had an impact on how individuals watch television.
About 30.5% of households with TVs will have DVRs by the end of the year, according to Interpublic Group of companies, Magna, and that figure could rise to nearly 44% by the end of 2014. Even TV executives say they believe 60% of DVR owners use them to speed past ads-in the process wiping out a fundamental economic pillar that makes the industry hum. Steinberg, March, 31, 2009.
While TV has its place as providing a reach to millions of people, the cost has gone up as the audience has shrunk. Thirty second advertising spots costs are down 25% to 30%, however with the sharp decline in viewers, the actual cost per 1000 viewers is up.
Third, the writers strike that occurred last year turned off viewers and they haven't return (the series Heroes was down 30% from last year's audience) accentuating a long term decline in viewership.
This means advertisers need to find the consumers. But where are they?
The consumers are moving online in droves, watching TV, getting their news and connecting with other like minded individuals. AC Nielson's online company Netviews says the number of people active online is 167 million. Dennis Woodside, US sales executive at Google believes television advertising on the web will be huge and he is right, as39.7 million people watched the inauguration online, more than did via television and over 1 million connected on Facebook during that time.
No longer can advertisers get out the message for their clients via standard media of television, radio, newspapers and magazines. Woodside also says, the Internet is fragmented and that fragmentation will increase, so advertisers will need to work hard to get their message out and will need to use multiple methods.
Media buys on TV were a major portion the advertising dollars spent of a campaign for consumer oriented companies. However in today's fragmented society it doesn't make sense to broadcast a Pampers commercial that will reach empty nesters and teenagers on a television show when a company can advertise on a website that caters to young mothers. In addition to being able to target to small interest groups, the web is online 24 hours a day, seven days a week and advertisement is right there, waiting. The web is also not restricted by geography, unlike radio, where advertising has to be bought for each metropolitan area.
Not only are people watching TV online and reading their news, they are also buying products. eMarketer projects online spending will increase by 8.9% in 2009, and was up 11.3% in 2008 and growth was up 25.6% in 2007. Compare this to the negative sales of retail stores, (i.e. Macy's sales dropped 9.5% in the first quarter of 2009).
As people have moved online, advertising has done so as well. Online advertising began with banner ads, which resemble traditional print ads and were not very effective however they have made resurgence and will be a strong second to Search in dollars generated in the near future.
One of the reasons online advertising is growing is that it can measured. The AC Nelson company provides data on television viewers, but it is only estimates; no one knows for sure how many people are viewing a show. Digital advertising is measured by Click Through Rate (CTR), the ability to measure when an ad is clicked on. While clicking on an advertisement doesn't necessarily translate into a sale, it does indicate interest; a far better measurement than the number of televisions turned to a show, especially in the days of DVRs. A CTR is obtained by dividing the number of users who clicked on an ad on a web page by the number of times the ad was delivered (impressions).
Even though online adverting is young compared to conventual radio and TV advertising it is already going through changes. The biggest change is social media or as industry people prefer to call it social networks. They are growing dramatically with Facebook having more than 200 million accounts; 130 million of those are used on a regular basis, 5th in Internet traffic. Twitter is growing exponentially, up 131% month to month in March of this year with 9.3 million unique visitors.
People are using the social networks to share common interests and this will be a gold mine if companies can figure out a way to use it effectly without offending the people they are trying to reach.
"While overall spending on marketing may go up, traditional-media outlays are declining, and spending is growing on the creative and technology necessary to implement social campaigns on Facebook, Twitter and MySpace. Agencies have to find a way to continue to make money in this environment. (Learmonth, Advertising Age, April 7, 2009).
Social media is compelling for individuals because it can enhance parts or interests in our lives. The number of people using social networking tools has surpassed the number using email.Along with the growth in users on social media, advertising spending in these forums is expected to increase to $3.7 billion by 2011 according to PQ Media. MySpace is working with grocery retailers to develop a bridge between the loyalty shopping cards and digital advertising on MySpace. P&G's Pringles has the most popular marketing generated Facebook page at 2.8 million fans
Many companies are using Twitter to connect to their most ardent customers by sending "tweets" concerning promotions, events and specials including such companies as Quaker, Pepsi, Southwest Airlines, Smirnoff Vodka and Express. The National Basketball Association has 140,000 follo
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